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Thursday, March 29, 2007 Kaiser Launches New Tracking Poll for the Presidential Campaign Season The Kaiser Family Foundation today released the results of the first in a new series of tracking polls on the public’s views of health reform and the presidential candidates’ positions on health care. Through the Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: Election 2008, Kaiser will track changes in the saliency of health as a political issue and policy priority, what the public’s priorities are for a health reform plan, and whether any candidates are breaking through with the public with their health reform plans. The Salience of the Issue This first baseline survey shows that Iraq continues to top the public’s list of issues, with 44% of the public citing it as one of the most important problems for the government to address and the same share saying they would like to hear presidential candidates talk about it. Iraq is the number one issue for Republicans, Democrats and independents alike. But healthcare ranks second with 29% citing it as one of the most important problems for the government to address, followed by the economy at 13%. Health care ranks second behind Iraq for Republicans, Democrats and independents. Previous Kaiser polls have shown the economy and health care tied as priorities for the public, or the economy ahead of health care, so health care may be on the rise as a national issue. The Appetite for Reform Overall, half the public (52%) say they would like to see candidates propose a major new health plan that would provide coverage to all or nearly all Americans and would involve a substantial increase in spending, while fewer (24%) would prefer a plan that would cover fewer people but involve less new spending. There are big party differences in these views, with Democrats far more likely than Republicans (66% vs. 38%) to favor a bigger plan that costs more, and with independents falling in the middle (52%). Priorities for Reform When asked to focus on health issues they would like to see presidential candidates address, roughly equal numbers cite expanding coverage for the uninsured and reducing costs. The Presidential Candidates The survey also provides an initial assessment of the public’s perceptions of where the 2008 presidential candidates stand on health care issues. When asked “which presidential candidate is placing the biggest emphasis on health care,” regardless of political party or whether they agree with them, most people don’t know or can’t name a candidate (45%), or say no candidate is doing so (21%). About one in five (21%) name Sen. Hillary Clinton – a result possibly attributable to the public associating her with health reform because of her role in the early 1990s. Sen. Clinton begins the primary campaign with an edge on this question among Democrats; 28% pick her as placing the greatest emphasis on health versus 10% for Sen. Barack Obama and 4% for former Sen. John Edwards. Notably at this early stage, 52% of Democrats don’t know or can’t name a candidate they see as placing a special emphasis on health or say “no candidate.” No Republican candidate registers significantly yet within Republicans on health. At this very early stage of the campaign, most people also don’t know or can’t name a candidate who “best represents your own views on health” (60%), or say that there isn’t a candidate who represents their views (8%). Sen. Clinton was the candidate named most frequently – with 14% saying she best represented their views – while all other candidates were in single digits. This was largely driven by Democrats, with more than a quarter (27%) of them naming Sen. Clinton, compared to 8% of Democrats who named Sen. Obama and 4% who named Sen. Edwards. Among Republicans and independents, no one candidate stands out in the public’s mind as representing their views on health care. As the campaign progresses, Kaiser will continue to track public opinion on health care and the presidential candidates every two months (or more frequently as the campaign heats up) as part of the Foundation’s broader efforts to inform the emerging health reform debate at the state and federal levels. The Kaiser Family Foundation conducted this baseline survey from March 8 to March 13 among a nationally representative telephone sample of 1,233 adults. The poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for the full sample; for results based on subgroups, the margin of sampling error is higher. For additional information, please contact Craig Palosky at 202-347-5270 or cpalosky@kff.org or Larry Levitt at 650-854-9400 or llevitt@kff.org.
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