Latest Harris Poll on the Presidential Race

A Press Release from the National Organization on Disability,

Bush and Kerry Battle for Lead Among Voters with Disabilities

Shift in support could be key to victory for either candidate

Washington, DC -- In the last poll of people with disabilities taken before next week's Presidential election, neither George W. Bush nor John Kerry can claim to definitively hold majority support among Americans with disabilities who are likely voters.

The poll*, commissioned by N.O.D. thorough a grant from the Carnegie Corporation and conducted by Harris Interactive., found that among Americans with disabilities who had already voted or who identified themselves as "very likely voters" 46 percent supported President Bush, 43 percent supported Sen. Kerry, 3 percent supported Ralph Nader, and 7 percent were not sure or declined to answer. (In the same poll, people without disabilities supported Kerry over Bush 48% to 47%, with 1 percent supporting Nader and 3 percent declining to answer.) The poll, which was conducted by telephone between October 18 and 20, 2004, has a margin of error of 1 6 percent for people with disabilities and 1 4 percent for people without disabilities, and the Kerry-Bush findings fall within that margin.

"At this late stage of the campaign a plurality of support from any bloc of voters can be a deciding factor in the election, especially from a group as large as Americans with disabilities. At this moment, that slight advantage is going to President Bush," said N.O.D. President, Alan A. Reich. "But given that the difference between the top candidates is within the margin or error, and that the intentions of seven percent of our voters are still unknown, this is a toss-up-one that when decided could swing the election."

Mr. Reich noted that there are 40 million Americans with disabilities who are of voting age. Anticipating a turnout of at least 41% among this group (the percent that voted in the 2000 election, according to a previous Harris survey), each percentage point represents over 150,000 votes.

"The seven percent of respondents who are undecided or refused to answer translates into more than a million votes. And if you combine that with the survey's six percent margin of error, it's more than two million votes. In states where the race for president is too close to call, the ballots cast by people with disabilities could provide the margin of victory for either candidate."

This poll results are part of a larger disability survey project studying voter preferences, issues of concern, and barriers to voting during this election season. This survey project has been made possible by a grant from Carnegie Corporation of New York.

*Methodology: The Harris Poll. was conducted by telephone within the United States between October 18 and 20, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 273 adults (aged 18 and over) with disabilities who have voted or are likely voters and 666 adults (aged 18 and over) without disabilities who have voted or are likely voters. For both samples figures for age, sex, race, education, and region were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in each population. For the sample of people with disabilities, these respondents were also weighted by type of disability and the sample of people without disabilities was also weighted by the number of adults and number of voice/telephone lines in the household where necessary.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points for the total sample of U.S. adults without disabilities who have voted or are likely voters (and plus or minus 6 percentage points for the smaller sample of U.S. adults with disabilities who have voted or are likely voters). Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

The National Organization on Disability, founded in 1982, promotes the full and equal participation and contribution of America's 54 million men, women and children with disabilities in all aspects of life. N.O.D. is a nonpartisan organization. For more information visit the N.O.D. website

About Harris Interactive.

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