NEW POLL FINDS KERRY LEADS AMONG VOTERS WITH DISABILITIES

PRESS RELEASE
Contact:To email Brewster Thackeray
202-955-6327

WASHINGTON, D.C., August 30-While President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry appear to be tied in this year’s presidential race, Kerry has opened a substantial lead among likely voters with disabilities, according to a mid-August poll by Harris Interactive. The survey of a nationally representative sample of 1,012 adults -- of whom 893 say they are likely to vote in November -- found Bush and Kerry each at 47 percent among all likely voters, with Ralph Nader at 3 percent. However, likely voters with disabilities say they will vote for Kerry over Bush (50 to 40 percent, with 7 percent for Nader).

“This finding is not unlike 2000, when voters with disabilities favored Al Gore,” said National Organization on Disability (N.O.D.) President Alan A. Reich. “These numbers suggest that Senator Kerry has nearly retained Al Gore’s 2000 election lead with this minority voting bloc, and it is benefiting his overall standing. But President Bush is polling at least as high with this group as he did in 2000, so he hasn’t given up any ground. I believe both camps recognize the importance of the disability vote this year, and neither is taking it for granted.”

In the 2000 election, The Harris Poll found that 56 percent of voters with disabilities cast ballots for Al Gore, and 38 percent for Bush. Since 41 percent of people 18 and over with disabilities, or roughly 16 million citizens, voted that year, the heavily pro-Gore split contributed to the closeness of the contested election. Three million more people with disabilities voted for Gore than for Bush; Gore won the popular vote by well under one million.

In the August 2004 survey, likely voters with disabilities favored Bush over Kerry (49 to 41 percent) on the issue that polls find is most important to the American people, the Iraq war and the war on terror. On this question those without disabilities also favored Bush, by a wider margin (54 to 36 percent).

The survey asked which candidate respondents felt would do a better job handing the economy and jobs, important issues for people with disabilities, who are twice as likely to live below the poverty line and less than half as likely to be employed. People with disabilities responded 50 percent for Kerry and 39 percent for Bush, compared to 45 percent and 42 percent respectively among those without disabilities.

“Candidates will never make a mistake by reaching out to voters who care about disability issues,” said Mr. Reich. “In fact, they ignore voters with disabilities at their peril. I urge the presidential candidates to speak out in his campaign and demonstrate their recognition that 54 million citizens with disabilities want to fully participate in and contribute to American life.”

The National Organization on Disability (N.O.D.) has posted links from its website to the official campaign websites of the candidates and to disability-specific statements the campaigns have released

N.O.D. since 1988 has conducted regular surveys with the Harris polling organization to track the involvement of people with disabilities in various elements of American life, including political participation and voting. Findings relating to the presidential candidates and national issues are being reported throughout the 2004 campaign.

Methodology: The Harris Poll® was conducted by telephone within the United States between August 10 and 15, 2004 among a nationwide cross section of 1,012 adults (of whom 171 had disabilities). 893 of all adults (and 147 people with disabilities) say that they are likely to vote. Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a sampling error of plus or minus 3.0 percentage points for the total sample (and plus or minus 8.0 percentage points for the smaller sample of likely voters with disabilities) of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population of people with disabilities had been polled with complete accuracy. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (non response), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors.

The National Organization on Disability, founded in 1982, promotes the full and equal participation and contribution of America’s 54 million men, women and children with disabilities in all aspects of life. N.O.D. is a nonpartisan organization. For more information visit NOD website.

Harris Interactive is a worldwide market research and consulting firm best known for The Harris Poll®, and for pioneering the Internet method to conduct scientifically accurate market research. Headquartered in Rochester, New York, Harris Interactive combines proprietary methodologies and technology with expertise in predictive, custom and strategic research.

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