by Frank G. Bowe, Ph.D., LL.D., and
Dr. Mervin Livingston Schloss,
  Distinguished Professor at Hofstra
August 18, 2006

Labor Day marks the traditional, if informal, beginning of the election season. Between September 4 and November 7, voters will be deciding on all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, 33 seats in the U.S. Senate, and scores of other offices, including state governors. AAPD’s Spring 2006 News focused on the primaries, urging Americans with disabilities to be active in them. Now, with the general election right around the corner, participation is even more urgent.

This year, more than most, change is in the air. There is a strong and growing hunger to “return home” in the country. After three years in Iraq and four in Afghanistan, with mixed results despite the deaths of 2,500 Americans and the wounding of 20,000 more, Americans increasingly are saying “enough”. One signal: political newcomer Ned Lamont’s upset victory over three-term U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman in Connecticut’s August 8 primary. Lamont ran on one platform: end the war in Iraq. Another signal: polls showing that only 25% of Americans think the country is headed in the right direction. A third: voters increasingly identify economic issues, such as gas prices, health care costs, pension worries, the ballooning federal debt, and the like, as most likely to influence how they vote.

For Americans with disabilities, this rising tide holds much promise. We need to seize the day to push our agenda.

And what is that agenda? Different people will advance different views. For me, it is a refocusing of policy and resources on long-neglected domestic issues. The country’s response to last year’s Katrina and Rita storms is illustrative. In both instances, the effort clearly has fallen short of meeting the need. Meanwhile, health care costs are soaring. Most American adults with disabilities, a distressing 70%+, remain out of the labor force 16 years after passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act.

Although a simplistic view holds that Democrats favor government support for human and civil rights and for support programs for those who are most vulnerable, while Republicans champion tax cuts and breaks for business, we cannot fall into that partisan trap. The fact is that our friends, both incumbents and challengers, are found in both parties. Some, too, are Independents (Lieberman the newest of them). We need to look beyond partisan labels to identify candidates who share our concerns, particularly those who really listen when we talk about our priorities and needs.

Every candidate for Congress took note of Lieberman’s defeat. Those supporting the war feel vulnerable – some are softening their rhetoric and listening, as seldom before, to constituent worries about domestic issues. Candidates opposing further hostilities in the Middle East feel emboldened – many are reaching out to seniors, persons with disabilities, and others who need public health insurance to talk about Medicare Part D and other “kitchen table” issues.

The Big Picture

The U.S. House of Representatives has had a Republican majority for 12 years. At present, there are 232 Republicans and 202 Democrats, with 1 independent. A net change of 15 or more seats in November would switch control to Democrats. Of the 435 seats, most are not competitive. This fact reflects the gerrymandering – the reconfiguration of Congressional districts -- of recent years. Analysts believe that about 192 seats are “safe Republican” and another 189 are “safe Democratic”. The total, 381, is a remarkable 86% of all House seats. Accordingly, to be “heard,” disability activists need to focus upon competitive races. As of mid-August, experts view 13 seats as “leaning Democratic,” 27 as “leaning Republican,” and just 14 as “toss up”. The most competitive Congressional Districts (C.D.’s), meaning the ones in which candidates are most receptive to voters’ needs and desires, are Arizona’s 8th, Colorado’s 7th, Connecticut’s 2nd and 4th C.D., Indiana’s 2nd, Iowa’s 1st, New Mexico’s 1st, New York’s 24th, Ohio’s 6th and 18th, Pennsylvania’s 6th, and Washington’s 8th. According to Chris Cillizza, who writes “The Fix” for the Washington Post, Democrats likely will pick up the required 15 seats to capture control of the House. In fact, if current trends continue through early November, it is even possible that Democrats will win 40 or more seats. That would not be unprecedented: in 1994, Republicans gained 54 seats in the House.

In the U.S. Senate, there are contests in 33 states. In those, Democrats are trying to hold 18 seats and Republicans 15. Analysts consider 12 to be “safe Democratic” and another 7 to be “leaning Democratic”. The comparable figures for Republicans are 7 (“safe”) and 4 (“leaning). Three are considered “toss ups” – Missouri, Montana, and Rhode Island. For control of the Senate to change from Republican to Democratic, there must be a net pick-up for Democrats of six or seven seats. That is possible, but nowhere nearly as likely as is change in the House. Advocates are most likely to “be heard” in states having competitive races. In alphabetical order, these are, as of mid-August: Arizona, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, and Washington (in addition to the “toss up” states of Missouri, Montana, and Rhode Island). The Post’s Cillizza thinks that Democrats have a shot in five races (Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) and a good chance in three more (Arizona, Tennessee, and Virginia).

If you live in one of these C.D.’s and/or in one of these States, you are particularly well-situated to make a difference this year. What to do? First, research the candidates. Which are most in tune with our priorities and needs? Which respond most effectively when presented with disability-related facts and figures? Second, volunteer. These competitive campaigns are incredibly expensive. The candidates will welcome your help! Third, use TV, radio, newspapers and the Web to track political events and activities. Show up, be visible, ask questions. Fourth, energize your family, friends and neighbors. Your mantra: “This is a change election. Get involved!” Fifth, write opinion pieces for your local paper. Talk about local disability issues.

To keep up with the ever-changing electoral landscape over the next couple months, I suggest two wonderfully helpful resources. The first is an election guide in the New York Times. The second is a similar resource by the Washington Post.